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How Exactly To identify value in your bets? That is the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the top Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and the way they offer a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, where, as a result of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short within any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the possibility of each team winning or even the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not appear to be much between them but when we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any individual bookmaker as they'd in theory be sure to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage will be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that could give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers can vary to the extent that you may locate a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you could make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there's no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so may be the best value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. Which is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the possibility of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you evaluate the prospects of each outcome just isn't due to this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than may be given here where we have been addressing bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the very best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should be given to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it's necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include two of the three possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds are already exaggerated. It is quite seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises however the illustration is a great football online one to show how to use percentages.
It really is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the most effective odds. All you need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. Because of this you may need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and possibly now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined use of percentages should form an important part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the possibility of each team winning or even the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not appear to be much between them but when we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any individual bookmaker as they'd in theory be sure to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage will be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that could give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers can vary to the extent that you may locate a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you could make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there's no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so may be the best value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. Which is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the possibility of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you evaluate the prospects of each outcome just isn't due to this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than may be given here where we have been addressing bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the very best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should be given to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it's necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include two of the three possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds are already exaggerated. It is quite seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises however the illustration is a great football online one to show how to use percentages.
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